Will the Right One Win? 2018 Oscar Predictions

Photo: Oscars.org

One of the most exciting days for film junkies has finally arrived. The 90th Academy Awards ceremony will be held tonight, and while the acting categories seem to be locked in, the award for Best Picture still feels like it could be a surprise.

I’ve seen all nine films and award ceremonies so far, and here are my opinions and predictions about who should and who will win tonight.

Director

Who will win: “The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro
Who should win: “The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

This category was full of great options this year. I loved Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig’s work, but I feel like their true strength was in their amazing screenplays. Del Toro sweeps us up into a fairytale/Cold War thriller/horror story full of wonderful performances, beautiful scenery, and a dash of 60s nostalgia.

Supporting Actress

Who will win: Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Who should win: Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”

Metcalf’s performance as an overbearing — oftentimes harsh — mother, who has a much softer heart than she lets show, was definitely the standout performance for me in this category. I felt her character’s stress so clearly throughout the entire film, and by the time she finally broke down at the airport, I was in tears.

Supporting Actor

Who will win: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Who should win: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Rockwell’s character is very controversial, but there’s no doubt that he had the most material to work with and that gives him a clear edge over his four fellow nominees. Even if the script is flawed, Rockwell’s acting is award-worthy. But it is a shame that Armie Hammer was overlooked in this category.

Lead Actress

Who will win: Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Who should win: Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Like Rockwell, McDormand was given such a meaty role that she’s a lock for this category. I’ve seen some criticism that she overdid it or that she even phoned it in, but I thought she was perfectly able to convey a woman who is deeply hurting but still trying to be tough-as-nails.

Lead Actor:

Who will win: Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Who should win: Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”

While I enjoyed Oldman’s performance, I think it’s time that the Academy take a break from giving the award to the performance that requires the most physical transformation. That plus the World War II setting makes Oldman an automatic lock for Best Actor.

I thought Chalamet’s performance as a lovestruck teenager was much more memorable. He tapped into the melancholy of adolescence and euphoria of first love in such a way that it felt like being transferred back to my own teenage years.

Best Picture:

Who will win: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Who should win: “The Shape of Water”

Truthfully, I don’t have strong feelings on who should win this category. “Three Billboards” feels like the typical Oscar movie and that’s why it will probably be awarded, but the fact that it isn’t nominated in the Best Director category creates some uncertainty. If it wins I won’t be angry, but I feel like the win could be remembered in the same way that “Crash” winning over “Brokeback Mountain” is: a mistake.

Out of the nine nominees, I enjoyed “Get Out” and “The Shape of Water” the most. Honestly, I picked the latter as my choice to win because of the higher production quality. They are pretty much a tie for my favorite, but “Get Out” does not feel like a typical Oscar movie, and unfortunately that hurts its odds.

Do you agree with my choices? Let me know in the comments!

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